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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 74

Washington Commanders 9 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to SEA 31, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.17 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 74, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP