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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 5-J.Myers 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.13 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model