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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to WAS 22, Center-41-C.Stoll. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 30 for 8 yards (32-Je.Reed; 44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model