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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 18 at the 29

Washington Commanders 9 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 6-J.Slye 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.00 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model