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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 7 at the 49
Seattle Seahawks 16 – Washington Commanders 12
What Actually Happened
(7:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.42 EP
-
39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.16 EP
- 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
KICK
-1.02 EP
- 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
- 66% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT
-0.08 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
