4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 36

Seattle Seahawks 16 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(13:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right guard to WAS 29 for 7 yards (31-K.Curl).

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.62 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model