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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 16 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 5-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model