4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 43

Washington Commanders 19 – Seattle Seahawks 26

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to SEA 35 for 8 yards (22-T.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.28 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 43, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model