4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.07 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.90 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -1.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model