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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Thursday 2023-11-16 · 20:15 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

CIN
33.4%
BAL
66.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL defense: -0.188 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.006 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21
–
BAL 26
Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CIN

Tee Higgins WR Out Hamstring
Sam Hubbard DE Out Ankle
Andrei Iosivas WR Out Knee
Charlie Jones WR Questionable Thumb

BAL

Trenton Simpson LB Out Concussion
Ronnie Stanley T Out Knee
Marlon Humphrey CB Doubtful Calf
Devin Duvernay WR Questionable Hamstring
John Simpson G Questionable Illness
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Groin
Daryl Worley S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 20
–
BAL 34

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:06 TD BAL (10:06) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 07:37 FG CIN (7:37) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. CIN 3 – BAL 7
  • Q2 05:53 TD CIN (5:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 28-J.Mixon for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – BAL 7
  • Q2 02:29 TD BAL (2:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CIN-29-C.Taylor-Britt, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. CIN 10 – BAL 13
  • Q2 00:28 TD BAL (:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – BAL 20
  • Q3 09:59 FG CIN (9:59) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins. CIN 13 – BAL 21
  • Q3 04:05 FG BAL (4:05) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. CIN 13 – BAL 24
  • Q3 00:30 FG BAL (:30) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. CIN 13 – BAL 27
  • Q4 04:52 TD BAL (4:52) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – BAL 33
  • Q4 01:12 TD CIN (1:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – BAL 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 79%

    (7:37) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:56) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to CIN 33, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones to CIN 38 for 5 yards (41-D.Worley).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 17 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:17) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to BAL 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:47) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to CIN 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones to CIN 27 for 20 yards (88-C.Kolar). PENALTY on BAL-43-J.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 27.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 71%

    (15:00) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 42%

    (13:19) 11-J.Stout punts 28 yards to CIN 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-C.Jones to CIN 18 for -1 yards (80-I.Likely).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 28%

    (1:38) 10-B.Robbins punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (9:59) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (4:05) 9-J.Tucker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:18) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to BAL 44, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 82%

    (:30) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:13) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to BAL 35, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 39%

    (10:40) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:35) 10-B.Robbins punts 50 yards to BAL 27, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 32 for 5 yards (51-M.Bailey; 27-J.Battle).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (2:55) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning scrambles left end to BAL 49 for 19 yards (26-G.Stone).