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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 8

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.06 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP