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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to BAL 44, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 82, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model