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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 48

Baltimore Ravens 27 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.00 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model