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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Baltimore Ravens 34

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning scrambles left end to BAL 49 for 19 yards (26-G.Stone).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model