Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(4:17) 10-B.Robbins punts 38 yards to BAL 31, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.25 EP
74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model