4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to CAR 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at CAR 26 for 14 yards (40-H.Luepke).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model