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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2023-11-19 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -11.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

DAL
67.6%
CAR
32.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DAL: Bryce Young (CAR) -0.247 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.125 EPA/dropback
  • CAR offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CAR on 3 more days rest than DAL
  • DAL defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 25
–
CAR 18
Projected margin: DAL by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DAL

Rico Dowdle RB Questionable Ankle

CAR

C.J. Henderson CB Out Concussion
Hayden Hurst TE Out Concussion
Marquis Haynes LB Out Back
Jaycee Horn CB Out Hamstring
Laviska Shenault WR Questionable Ankle
Stephen Sullivan TE Questionable Shoulder
Ian Thomas TE Questionable Calf
Xavier Woods S Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 33
–
CAR 10

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:25 TD DAL (3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 86-L.Schoonmaker for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – CAR 0
  • Q2 11:05 FG DAL (11:05) 17-B.Aubrey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 10 – CAR 0
  • Q2 02:00 FG CAR (2:00) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. DAL 10 – CAR 3
  • Q2 00:29 TD DAL (:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – CAR 3
  • Q3 02:04 TD CAR (2:04) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – CAR 9
  • Q4 14:06 TD DAL (14:06) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-99-S.Tuttle, Defensive Holding, declined. DAL 23 – CAR 10
  • Q4 13:58 TD DAL (13:58) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right intended for 15-J.Mingo INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at CAR 30. 26-D.Bland for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 30 – CAR 10
  • Q4 07:21 FG DAL (7:21) 17-B.Aubrey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 33 – CAR 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:44) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to CAR 13, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 15 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 44%

    (8:26) 10-J.Hekker punts 29 yards to DAL 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 16 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (11:05) 17-B.Aubrey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:53) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DAL 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on DAL-30-J.Thomas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 27.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:01) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to CAR 12, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at CAR 26 for 14 yards (40-H.Luepke).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:37) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to DAL 20, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:05) 5-B.Anger punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-44-T.Sieg, Touchback. PENALTY on DAL-25-N.Wright, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 31%

    (8:08) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at DAL 35 for 16 yards (2-J.Lewis).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 83%

    (6:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to DAL 25 for 3 yards (30-J.Thomas).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 95%

    (4:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-M.Sanders right guard to DAL 13 for 3 yards (30-J.Thomas; 11-M.Parsons).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 97%

    (7:21) 17-B.Aubrey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 15 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:54) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DAL 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.