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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 28

Carolina Panthers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(6:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to DAL 25 for 3 yards (30-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.44 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model