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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(4:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-M.Sanders right guard to DAL 13 for 3 yards (30-J.Thomas; 11-M.Parsons).

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.08 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model