Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 10 – Dallas Cowboys 33

(5:54) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to DAL 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.78 EP
72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model