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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 10-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.16 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 20, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model