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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 3

Miami Dolphins 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(9:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to LV 7 for -4 yards (39-N.Hobbs, 20-I.Pola-Mao).

The Three Options

GO +4.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.26 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model