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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2023-11-19 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

LV
20.8%
MIA
79.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.181 vs Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.095 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: +0.101 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • MIA on 7 more days rest than LV

Predicted Final Score

LV 19
–
MIA 29
Projected margin: MIA by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

LV

Roderic Teamer S Questionable Hamstring
Kolton Miller T Questionable Shoulder
Dylan Parham G Questionable Calf

MIA

Chase Claypool WR Out Knee
Robert Hunt G Out Hamstring
Robert Jones G Out Knee
Devon Achane RB Questionable Knee
Braxton Berrios WR Questionable Hamstring
Alec Ingold FB Questionable Foot
Durham Smythe TE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 13
–
MIA 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:46 FG LV (6:46) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – MIA 0
  • Q1 02:10 TD MIA (2:10) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 3 – MIA 6
  • Q1 00:08 TD LV (:08) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 9 – MIA 7
  • Q2 02:33 TD MIA (2:33) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 26-S.Ahmed for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – MIA 13
  • Q2 00:09 FG LV (:09) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 13 – MIA 14
  • Q3 05:29 FG MIA (5:29) 7-J.Sanders 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. LV 13 – MIA 17
  • Q3 00:30 FG MIA (:30) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. LV 13 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 16 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:20) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to MIA 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 28 for 14 yards (80-J.Horsted). PENALTY on MIA-22-E.Campbell, Illegal Blindside Block, 14 yards, enforced at MIA 28.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (6:46) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (9:13) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 10-T.Hill to LV 7 for -4 yards (39-N.Hobbs, 20-I.Pola-Mao).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:39) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to MIA 37, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:18) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to MIA 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (:09) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (12:50) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to MIA 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 21 for 8 yards (22-A.Abdullah).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 76%

    (8:27) 7-J.Sanders 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%

    (5:29) 7-J.Sanders 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:00) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to MIA 15, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 72%

    (:30) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:11) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to MIA 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 21 for 9 yards (19-D.Turner). PENALTY on MIA-20-J.Bethel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (11:03) 16-J.Bailey punts 34 yards to 50, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 76%

    (8:33) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep left to 16-J.Meyers.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:34) 16-J.Bailey punts 66 yards to LV 1, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 3-D.Carter to LV 13 for 12 yards (45-D.Riley).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 6 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 87%

    (3:12) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle INTERCEPTED by 15-J.Phillips [94-C.Wilkins] at MIA 33. 15-J.Phillips to MIA 38 for 5 yards (77-T.Munford).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 30%

    (2:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to LV 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.