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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(:09) 2-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model