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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 6-A.Cole punts 51 yards to MIA 15, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP