Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to MIA 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-C.Wilson to MIA 21 for 9 yards (19-D.Turner). PENALTY on MIA-20-J.Bethel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.47 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model