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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 24

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(3:12) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass short middle INTERCEPTED by 15-J.Phillips [94-C.Wilkins] at MIA 33. 15-J.Phillips to MIA 38 for 5 yards (77-T.Munford).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP