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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to LV 7, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.80 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model