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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 9 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 8-S.Martin punts 34 yards to NYJ 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-20-T.Rapp.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.92 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model