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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2023-11-19 · 16:25 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

NYJ
17.3%
BUF
82.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.241 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.114 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.252 EPA/dropback
  • BUF offense: +0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 16
–
BUF 27
Projected margin: BUF by 11 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

NYJ

Sam Eguavoen LB Out Hip
Chazz Surratt LB Out Ankle
Billy Turner T Out Finger
Duane Brown T Out Hip
Kenny Yeboah TE Out Hamstring
Will McDonald DE Questionable Ankle
Garrett Wilson WR Questionable Elbow

BUF

Jordan Phillips DT Questionable Knee
Trent Sherfield WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 6
–
BUF 32

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:35 FG BUF (13:35) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. NYJ 0 – BUF 3
  • Q1 05:59 FG BUF (5:59) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. NYJ 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 11:29 FG BUF (11:29) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. NYJ 0 – BUF 9
  • Q2 03:08 TD BUF (3:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – BUF 15
  • Q2 00:50 TD NYJ (:50) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 20-Bre.Hall for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – BUF 16
  • Q3 10:41 TD BUF (10:41) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – BUF 22
  • Q3 06:42 TD BUF (6:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – BUF 28
  • Q4 05:21 FG BUF (5:21) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. NYJ 6 – BUF 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 19 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 77%

    (13:35) 2-T.Bass 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (12:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to BUF 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty to BUF 30 for 2 yards (42-T.Hennessy).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (5:59) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 26%

    (2:26) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 95%

    (11:29) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:05) 5-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to BUF 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty ran ob at BUF 34 for 8 yards (42-T.Hennessy).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 12 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 45%

    (6:12) 8-S.Martin punts 34 yards to NYJ 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-20-T.Rapp.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 5-T.Morstead pass short left to 26-B.Echols to BUF 32 for 44 yards (20-T.Rapp). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 5-T.Morstead pass short left to 26-B.Echols ran ob at NYJ 42 for 18 yards (33-S.Neal).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 28%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 20-Bre.Hall to BUF 35 for 15 yards (7-Ta.Johnson, 20-T.Rapp). BUF-7-Ta.Johnson was injured during the play. He is Out. BUF-20-T.Rapp was injured during the play. He is Out. Penalty on BUF-56-L.Floyd, Defensive Offside, declined. T.Johnson jogs to tunnel; T.Rapp taken from field in ambulance.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 81%

    (10:41) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to BUF 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty pushed ob at BUF 14 for 10 yards (87-C.Uzomah).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (3:24) 5-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to BUF 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:24) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to NYJ 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 45%

    (15:00) 7-T.Boyle up the middle to BUF 42 for 1 yard (93-L.Joseph).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 17 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:48) 8-S.Martin punts 31 yards to NYJ 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-85-Q.Morris.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:46) 5-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to BUF 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty to BUF 46 for 15 yards (19-I.Charles).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 73%

    (5:21) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:36) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short right to 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 46 for 7 yards (33-S.Neal).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 49 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 30%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short right intended for 83-T.Conklin INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at BUF 43. 31-R.Douglas to BUF 43 for no gain.