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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 76

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 5-T.Morstead pass short left to 26-B.Echols to BUF 32 for 44 yards (20-T.Rapp). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 5-T.Morstead pass short left to 26-B.Echols ran ob at NYJ 42 for 18 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.00 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model