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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 50

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 20-Bre.Hall to BUF 35 for 15 yards (7-Ta.Johnson, 20-T.Rapp). BUF-7-Ta.Johnson was injured during the play. He is Out. BUF-20-T.Rapp was injured during the play. He is Out. Penalty on BUF-56-L.Floyd, Defensive Offside, declined. T.Johnson jogs to tunnel; T.Rapp taken from field in ambulance.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.51 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model