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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 28

Buffalo Bills 16 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-T.Johnson for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.35 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model