Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 65

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 29

(3:24) 5-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to BUF 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.63 EP
73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model