Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 29 – New York Jets 6

(2:24) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to NYJ 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model