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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 86

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 29

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 5-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to BUF 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Harty to BUF 46 for 15 yards (19-I.Charles).

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.70 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model