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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 29 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 2-T.Bass 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.81 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP