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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 61

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 32

What Actually Happened

(3:36) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short right to 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 46 for 7 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.47 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model