4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 49

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 32

What Actually Happened

(2:36) (Shotgun) 7-T.Boyle pass short right intended for 83-T.Conklin INTERCEPTED by 31-R.Douglas at BUF 43. 31-R.Douglas to BUF 43 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.90 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model