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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to SEA 12, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 28, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model