4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SEA Away

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2023-11-19 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

SEA
44.1%
LA
55.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA on 7 more days rest than SEA
  • LA offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SEA offense: -0.029 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Geno Smith (SEA): -0.009 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22
–
LA 23
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

SEA

Dareke Young WR Out Abdomen
Jamal Adams S Questionable Knee
Tre Brown CB Questionable Foot
Tyler Lockett WR Questionable Hamstring
Abraham Lucas T Questionable Knee

LA

Cobie Durant CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 16
–
LA 17

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:23 TD SEA (5:23) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 08:31 FG SEA (8:31) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 10 – LA 0
  • Q2 04:52 FG SEA (4:52) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 13 – LA 0
  • Q2 00:12 TD LA (:12) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – LA 6
  • Q3 08:08 FG SEA (8:08) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 16 – LA 7
  • Q4 07:41 TD LA (7:41) (No Huddle) 27-D.Henderson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 16 – LA 13
  • Q4 01:34 FG LA (1:34) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. SEA 16 – LA 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:13) 42-E.Evans punts 58 yards to SEA 12, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (2:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 5-T.Atwell.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 74%

    (11:30) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to LA 26 for 8 yards (37-Q.Lake).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 20 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 70%

    (8:31) 5-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:07) 42-E.Evans punts 56 yards to SEA 19, Center-47-A.Ward. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 32 for 13 yards (18-B.Skowronek, 59-T.Reeder).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (14:10) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to LA 5, Center-41-C.Stoll. 81-A.Trammell to LA 17 for 12 yards (20-J.Love, 0-D.Bush).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 17 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:11) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to SEA 39, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-26-D.Shelley. PENALTY on LA-26-D.Shelley, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 39.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 68%

    (9:56) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 26-Z.Charbonnet ran ob at LA 28 for 9 yards (53-E.Jones).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 15 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 76%

    (8:08) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:08) 42-E.Evans punts 33 yards to SEA 30, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to LA 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 81-A.Trammell to LA 13 for 4 yards (44-N.Bellore; 58-D.Hall). PENALTY on LA-18-B.Skowronek, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at LA 9.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 14 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:37) 42-E.Evans punts 65 yards to SEA 24, Center-47-A.Ward. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 36 for 12 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:55) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to LA 17, Center-41-C.Stoll. 81-A.Trammell to LA 32 for 15 yards (20-J.Love).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to LA 29, Center-41-C.Stoll. 81-A.Trammell to LA 32 for 3 yards (20-J.Love; 31-D.Dallas).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (1:34) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.