Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 90

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to SEA 39, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-26-D.Shelley. PENALTY on LA-26-D.Shelley, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 39.

The Three Options

GO -3.30 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.36 EP
71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 90, worth -5.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model