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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 63

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Seattle Seahawks 16

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 42-E.Evans punts 33 yards to SEA 30, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model