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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 16 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to LA 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 81-A.Trammell to LA 13 for 4 yards (44-N.Bellore; 58-D.Hall). PENALTY on LA-18-B.Skowronek, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at LA 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model