4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 16 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to LA 29, Center-41-C.Stoll. 81-A.Trammell to LA 32 for 3 yards (20-J.Love; 31-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model