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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 30

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.70 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model