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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2023-11-26 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

BAL
53.4%
LAC
46.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.164 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.173 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC defense: +0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BAL on 3 more days rest than LAC

Predicted Final Score

BAL 27
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: BAL by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

BAL

Mark Andrews TE Out Ankle
Trenton Simpson LB Out Concussion
Malik Harrison LB Doubtful Groin
Charlie Kolar TE Questionable Illness
Ronnie Stanley T Questionable Knee
Odell Beckham WR Questionable Shoulder
Zay Flowers WR Questionable Hip
Damarion Williams CB Questionable Ankle
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Calf

LAC

Nick Vannett TE Out Concussion
J.T. Woods S Out Illness
Gerald Everett TE Questionable Chest
Jalen Guyton WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 20
–
LAC 10

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:07 FG LAC (9:07) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. BAL 0 – LAC 3
  • Q2 10:46 TD BAL (10:46) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – LAC 3
  • Q2 01:16 FG BAL (1:16) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – LAC 3
  • Q3 10:58 FG BAL (10:58) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 13 – LAC 3
  • Q4 08:36 TD LAC (8:36) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 7-G.Everett for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – LAC 9
  • Q4 01:44 TD BAL (1:44) (Shotgun) 4-Z.Flowers left end for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – LAC 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 19 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 92%

    (9:07) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 40%

    (5:21) 11-J.Stout punts 37 yards to LAC 11, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:11) 16-J.Scott punts 57 yards to BAL 22, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:09) 16-J.Scott punts 46 yards to BAL 35, Center-47-J.Harris. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 38 for 3 yards (31-N.Niemann).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 85%

    (4:18) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 35-G.Edwards. 35-G.Edwards right end to LAC 27 for no gain (9-K.Murray; 32-A.Gilman).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 89%

    (1:16) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 14 at the 51
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 33%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 7-R.Bateman.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 81%

    (10:58) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:05) 16-J.Scott punts 53 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 58%

    (7:58) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to LAC 39 for 2 yards (9-K.Murray).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 15 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 50%

    (6:22) 11-J.Stout punts 29 yards to LAC 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 33%

    (3:26) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to BAL 49 for 2 yards (58-M.Pierce).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:37) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to LAC 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-D.Davis to LAC 40 for 23 yards (26-G.Stone; 53-D.Phillips).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 87%

    (3:02) 9-J.Tucker 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 45%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left [10-A.Maulet]. PENALTY on LAC-10-J.Herbert, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 46.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 19 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 25%

    (:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short left to 13-K.Allen.