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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 41
Baltimore Ravens 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 3
What Actually Happened
(7:58) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right guard to LAC 39 for 2 yards (9-K.Murray).
The Three Options
GO
+1.55 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.08 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.22 EP
KICK
-0.22 EP
- 58% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 42% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT
-0.49 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
