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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to BAL 49 for 2 yards (58-M.Pierce).

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.94 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 51, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model