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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 21

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.45 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model